Nine years in, we are changing one thing

We're changing our name to The Bitcoin Compass. Say that out loud a few times, because you'll be seeing it every Tuesday from now on.

Here's the part that matters more than the name itself. A compass doesn't change the terrain. It doesn't move the mountain or reroute the river. It just keeps you pointed in the right direction as you walk through it.

That's the only job this newsletter has ever had, and it's the only job it's going to keep having: keep you oriented while Bitcoin does what Bitcoin does.

So here's the real question for this issue. The next time Bitcoin drops 20% in a week, and it will, what does staying oriented actually look like? Not "don't panic." Something you can actually do. Keep reading.

📝 The Translation

Bitcoin pulled back from a two-week high. The reason why matters more than the pullback itself. 📉

What happened: Bitcoin slid back from around $64,500 this week after falling open interest and soft spot demand raised questions about how much staying power July's 8.4% rally really has.

Why it matters: Fewer leveraged bets stacking on top of a rally usually mean fewer people are willing to bet big that it will continue. Add in spot demand that still hasn't fully caught up, and this looks more like a cautious bounce than a confirmed trend change.

The Compass take: None of this means the rally's over. It means the conviction behind it is still thin, and a thin conviction can turn either direction fast. That's not a reason to panic. It's a reason to hold your plan a little more loosely than the headlines suggest.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt is calling for Bitcoin to reach $300,000 to $500,000 by 2029. The math behind that call is worth slowing down for. 🤯

What happened: Crypto analysts are already looking at how high Bitcoin could rally in the next cycle, and one trader, Peter Brandt, predicts Bitcoin could reach $300,000 to $500,000 by 2029.

Why it matters: Calls like this usually extend growth rates from Bitcoin's early years, when the asset was a fraction of its current size. Repeating that kind of percentage growth on a much bigger base is a completely different math problem than the one that produced it the first time.

The Compass take: Big moves aren't impossible, and Brandt's track record earns his call a real look. But a number this large still says as much about the model's assumptions as it does about what's likely. Next time a target this big is treated like a forecast rather than an educated guess, that's your cue to check the math behind it.

👌 Confidence Builder — You now know: the three-stage path to owning Bitcoin safely

Nobody hands a sixteen-year-old the keys to a car on day one. First, you learn how the thing works. Then you're allowed to actually drive it, with someone watching. Only after that do you get trusted with the keys on your own.

Bitcoin works the same way, and we've built our whole approach around it. We call it Learn, Use, Secure.

Learn comes first: understanding what Bitcoin actually is, before you own a single unit of it. Not the price. The mechanics. What makes it scarce, what makes it yours, what can go wrong.

Use comes next: actually buying it, spending it, sending it. Small amounts, low stakes, real experience. This is the learner's permit stage.

Secure is where it gets serious: moving meaningful amounts into your own custody, protecting your keys the way you'd protect a house deed. This is the stage where a mistake actually costs you, so it's the stage we spend the most time on.

You now know: every Bitcoin mistake we've ever seen happened because someone skipped straight to Secure without doing Learn or Use first. Slow down, and do it in order.

🔭 The Long View

We've watched Bitcoin cross $1,000 and get called a bubble. We've watched it lose 80% and get called dead. Both happened more than once.

We're still here. Still boring. Still right about the one thing that's actually mattered the whole time: you don't lose your Bitcoin to the market. You lose it to a mistake. The market just gives you more chances to make one.

🧐 Reader's Question

You may be asking: "Why change the name if the newsletter didn't change?"

Fair question. Here's the honest answer: names are how people find you and remember you, and "The Bitcoin Newsletter" never told you what we actually do. The substance underneath didn't move an inch. The positioning just finally caught up to it. Same team, same mission since 2017. Just a name that says it out loud.

📌 One Thing To Do

Reply to this email with the one Bitcoin question you've never asked anyone. We read every reply, and yours might be the next Reader's Question.

👋🏻 The Close

If you've been with us since before this email had a name worth remembering, thank you. You stuck around while we figured out what we actually wanted to be, and that's not nothing.

Reply and tell us that one question you've been sitting on. And if The Compass is worth sharing, forward it to the one person who keeps asking you about Bitcoin at dinner. That's who we built this for.

— The Bitcoin Compass
UseTheBitcoin.com · Trusted since 2017